INTRODUCTORY ECONOMETRICS – REPLICATING EXAMPLES

Chapter 10  Time Series

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            name:  SN
       log:  ~Wooldridge\intro-econx\iexample10.smcl
  log type:  smcl
 opened on:  14 Jan 2019, 15:34:49
. **********************************************
. * Solomon Negash - Replicating Examples
. * Wooldridge (2016). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. 6th ed.  
. * STATA Program, version 15.1. 

. * Chapter 10 Basic Regression Analysis with Time Series Data
. * Computer Exercises (Examples)
. ******************** SETUP *********************

. *Example 10.1. Static Phillips Curve
. u phillips, clear
. reg inf unem
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        49
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 47)        =      2.62
       Model |  25.6369575         1  25.6369575   Prob > F        =    0.1125
    Residual |   460.61979        47  9.80042107   R-squared       =    0.0527
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0326
       Total |  486.256748        48  10.1303489   Root MSE        =    3.1306

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         inf |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        unem |   .4676257   .2891262     1.62   0.112    -.1140213    1.049273
       _cons |    1.42361   1.719015     0.83   0.412    -2.034602    4.881822
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Example 10.2.  Effects of Inflation and Deficits on Interest Rates
. bcuse intdef, clear
Contains data from http://fmwww.bc.edu/ec-p/data/wooldridge/intdef.dta
  obs:            56                          
 vars:            13                          25 Jul 2005 15:25
 size:         2,632                          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              storage   display    value
variable name   type    format     label      variable label
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
year            int     %9.0g                 1948 to 2003
i3              float   %9.0g                 3 month T-bill rate
inf             float   %9.0g                 CPI inflation rate
rec             float   %9.0g                 federal receipts, % GDP
out             float   %9.0g                 federal outlays, % GDP
def             float   %9.0g                 out - rec
i3_1            float   %9.0g                 i3[_n-1]
inf_1           float   %9.0g                 inf[_n-1]
def_1           float   %9.0g                 def[_n-1]
ci3             float   %9.0g                 i3 - i3_1
cinf            float   %9.0g                 inf - inf_1
cdef            float   %9.0g                 def - def_1
y77             byte    %9.0g                 =1 if year >= 1977; change in FY
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorted by: 
. reg i3 inf def
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        56
-------------+----------------------------------   F(2, 53)        =     40.09
       Model |  272.420338         2  136.210169   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  180.054275        53  3.39725047   R-squared       =    0.6021
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.5871
       Total |  452.474612        55  8.22681113   Root MSE        =    1.8432

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          i3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         inf |   .6058659   .0821348     7.38   0.000     .4411243    .7706074
         def |   .5130579   .1183841     4.33   0.000     .2756095    .7505062
       _cons |   1.733266    .431967     4.01   0.000     .8668497    2.599682
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. display _b[inf]
.60586586

. *Example 10.3. Puerto Rican Employment and the Minimum Wage
. u prminwge, clear
. reg lprepop lmincov lusgnp
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        38
-------------+----------------------------------   F(2, 35)        =     34.04
       Model |  .211258366         2  .105629183   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  .108600151        35  .003102861   R-squared       =    0.6605
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.6411
       Total |  .319858518        37  .008644825   Root MSE        =     .0557

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     lprepop |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     lmincov |  -.1544442   .0649015    -2.38   0.023    -.2862011   -.0226872
      lusgnp |  -.0121888   .0885134    -0.14   0.891    -.1918806     .167503
       _cons |  -1.054423   .7654065    -1.38   0.177     -2.60828    .4994351
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Example 10.4. Effects of Personal Exemption on Fertility Rates
. u fertil3, clear
. reg gfr pe ww2 pill
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(3, 68)        =     20.38
       Model |  13183.6215         3  4394.54049   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  14664.2739        68  215.651087   R-squared       =    0.4734
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.4502
       Total |  27847.8954        71  392.223879   Root MSE        =    14.685

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         gfr |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pe |     .08254   .0296462     2.78   0.007     .0233819    .1416981
         ww2 |   -24.2384   7.458253    -3.25   0.002    -39.12111   -9.355684
        pill |  -31.59403   4.081068    -7.74   0.000    -39.73768   -23.45039
       _cons |   98.68176   3.208129    30.76   0.000     92.28003    105.0835
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. reg gfr pe pe_1 pe_2 ww2 pill

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        70
-------------+----------------------------------   F(5, 64)        =     12.73
       Model |  12959.7886         5  2591.95772   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  13032.6443        64  203.635067   R-squared       =    0.4986
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.4594
       Total |  25992.4329        69  376.701926   Root MSE        =     14.27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         gfr |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pe |   .0726718   .1255331     0.58   0.565    -.1781094     .323453
        pe_1 |  -.0057796   .1556629    -0.04   0.970     -.316752    .3051929
        pe_2 |   .0338268   .1262574     0.27   0.790    -.2184013     .286055
         ww2 |   -22.1265   10.73197    -2.06   0.043    -43.56608   -.6869196
        pill |  -31.30499   3.981559    -7.86   0.000    -39.25907   -23.35091
       _cons |    95.8705   3.281957    29.21   0.000     89.31403     102.427
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. display _b[pe] + _b[pe_1] + _b[pe_2] 
.10071909

. *Example 10.5. Antidumping Filings and Chemical Imports
. u barium, clear
. reg lchnimp lchempi lgas lrtwex befile6 affile6 afdec6
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =       131
-------------+----------------------------------   F(6, 124)       =      9.06
       Model |  19.4051607         6  3.23419346   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  44.2470875       124  .356831351   R-squared       =    0.3049
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.2712
       Total |  63.6522483       130  .489632679   Root MSE        =    .59735

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     lchnimp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     lchempi |   3.117193   .4792021     6.50   0.000     2.168718    4.065668
        lgas |   .1963504   .9066172     0.22   0.829    -1.598099      1.9908
      lrtwex |   .9830183   .4001537     2.46   0.015     .1910022    1.775034
     befile6 |   .0595739   .2609699     0.23   0.820    -.4569585    .5761064
     affile6 |  -.0324064   .2642973    -0.12   0.903    -.5555249     .490712
      afdec6 |   -.565245   .2858352    -1.98   0.050    -1.130993    .0005028
       _cons |    -17.803   21.04537    -0.85   0.399    -59.45769    23.85169
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. display 100*(exp(_b[afdec6]) -1)
-43.177908

. *Example 10.6. Election Outcomes and Economic Performance
. u fair, clear
. reg demvote partyWH incum c.partyWH#c.gnew c.partyWH#c.inf if year<1996
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        20
-------------+----------------------------------   F(4, 15)        =      7.37
       Model |  .072465402         4  .018116351   Prob > F        =    0.0017
    Residual |  .036853881        15  .002456925   R-squared       =    0.6629
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.5730
       Total |  .109319283        19  .005753646   Root MSE        =    .04957

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          demvote |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          partyWH |  -.0434752    .040459    -1.07   0.300    -.1297114    .0427611
            incum |   .0543902   .0234166     2.32   0.035      .004479    .1043015
                  |
c.partyWH#c.gnews |   .0108466   .0041267     2.63   0.019     .0020508    .0196424
                  |
  c.partyWH#c.inf |  -.0077017   .0032567    -2.36   0.032    -.0146432   -.0007602
                  |
            _cons |    .481062   .0122631    39.23   0.000     .4549238    .5072002
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. display _b[_cons] + _b[partyWH] + _b[incum] + _b[c.partyWH#c.gnew]*3 + _b[c.partyWH#c.inf]*3.019.5012655

. *Example 10.7. Housing Investment and Prices
. u hseinv, clear
. reg linvpc lprice
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        42
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 40)        =     10.53
       Model |  .254364468         1  .254364468   Prob > F        =    0.0024
    Residual |  .966255566        40  .024156389   R-squared       =    0.2084
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1886
       Total |  1.22062003        41   .02977122   Root MSE        =    .15542

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      linvpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      lprice |   1.240943   .3824192     3.24   0.002     .4680452    2.013841
       _cons |  -.5502345   .0430266   -12.79   0.000    -.6371945   -.4632746
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. reg linvpc lprice t

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        42
-------------+----------------------------------   F(2, 39)        =     10.08
       Model |  .415945108         2  .207972554   Prob > F        =    0.0003
    Residual |  .804674927        39   .02063269   R-squared       =    0.3408
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.3070
       Total |  1.22062003        41   .02977122   Root MSE        =    .14364

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      linvpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      lprice |  -.3809612   .6788352    -0.56   0.578    -1.754035    .9921125
           t |   .0098287   .0035122     2.80   0.008     .0027246    .0169328
       _cons |  -.9130595   .1356133    -6.73   0.000    -1.187363   -.6387557
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Example 10.8. Fertility Equation
. u fertil3, clear
. reg gfr pe ww2 pill t
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(4, 67)        =     32.84
       Model |  18441.2357         4  4610.30894   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  9406.65967        67  140.397905   R-squared       =    0.6622
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.6420
       Total |  27847.8954        71  392.223879   Root MSE        =    11.849

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         gfr |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pe |   .2788778   .0400199     6.97   0.000     .1989978    .3587578
         ww2 |  -35.59228   6.297377    -5.65   0.000     -48.1619   -23.02266
        pill |   .9974479    6.26163     0.16   0.874    -11.50082    13.49571
           t |  -1.149872   .1879038    -6.12   0.000    -1.524929   -.7748145
       _cons |   111.7694   3.357765    33.29   0.000     105.0673    118.4716
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. reg gfr pe ww2 pill t tsq
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(5, 66)        =     35.09
       Model |  20236.3981         5  4047.27961   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  7611.49734        66  115.325717   R-squared       =    0.7267
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.7060
       Total |  27847.8954        71  392.223879   Root MSE        =    10.739

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         gfr |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pe |   .3478126   .0402599     8.64   0.000     .2674311     .428194
         ww2 |  -35.88028   5.707921    -6.29   0.000    -47.27651   -24.48404
        pill |  -10.11972   6.336094    -1.60   0.115    -22.77014    2.530696
           t |  -2.531426   .3893863    -6.50   0.000    -3.308861   -1.753991
         tsq |   .0196126    .004971     3.95   0.000     .0096876    .0295377
       _cons |   124.0919   4.360738    28.46   0.000     115.3854    132.7984
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Example 10.9. Puerto Rican Employment
. u prminwge, clear
. reg lprepop lmincov lusgnp t
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        38
-------------+----------------------------------   F(3, 34)        =     62.78
       Model |  .270948453         3  .090316151   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  .048910064        34  .001438531   R-squared       =    0.8471
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.8336
       Total |  .319858518        37  .008644825   Root MSE        =    .03793

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     lprepop |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     lmincov |  -.1686949   .0442463    -3.81   0.001    -.2586142   -.0787757
      lusgnp |   1.057351   .1766369     5.99   0.000     .6983813     1.41632
           t |  -.0323542   .0050227    -6.44   0.000    -.0425616   -.0221468
       _cons |  -8.696298   1.295764    -6.71   0.000    -11.32961   -6.062988
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Example 10.10. Housing Investment
. u hseinv, clear
. reg linvpc lprice t
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        42
-------------+----------------------------------   F(2, 39)        =     10.08
       Model |  .415945108         2  .207972554   Prob > F        =    0.0003
    Residual |  .804674927        39   .02063269   R-squared       =    0.3408
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.3070
       Total |  1.22062003        41   .02977122   Root MSE        =    .14364

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      linvpc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      lprice |  -.3809612   .6788352    -0.56   0.578    -1.754035    .9921125
           t |   .0098287   .0035122     2.80   0.008     .0027246    .0169328
       _cons |  -.9130595   .1356133    -6.73   0.000    -1.187363   -.6387557
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. qui reg linvpc t
. predict uh, res
. eststo Detrended: qui reg uh lprice t
. eststo Trended: qui reg linvpc lprice t
. estout , cells(b(nostar fmt(4)) se(par fmt(4))) stats(r2 r2_a N, fmt(%9.3f %9.3f %9.0g) /// 
labels(R-squared Adj-R-squared N)) varlabels(_cons intercept) varwidth(20) ti(Dependent ///
Variables: log(invpc))
Dependent Variables: log(invpc)
----------------------------------------------
                        Detrended      Trended
                             b/se         b/se
----------------------------------------------
lprice                    -0.3810      -0.3810
                         (0.6788)     (0.6788)
t                          0.0017       0.0098
                         (0.0035)     (0.0035)
intercept                 -0.0718      -0.9131
                         (0.1356)     (0.1356)
----------------------------------------------
R-squared                   0.008        0.341
Adj-R-squared              -0.043        0.307
N                              42           42
----------------------------------------------
. est clear

. *Example 10.11. Effects of Antidumping Filings
. u barium, clear
. reg lchnimp lchempi lgas lrtwex befile6 affile6 afdec6 feb-dec
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =       131
-------------+----------------------------------   F(17, 113)      =      3.71
       Model |  22.8083523        17  1.34166778   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |   40.843896       113  .361450407   R-squared       =    0.3583
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.2618
       Total |  63.6522483       130  .489632679   Root MSE        =    .60121

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     lchnimp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     lchempi |    3.26506   .4929302     6.62   0.000     2.288476    4.241644
        lgas |  -1.278121   1.389008    -0.92   0.359    -4.029997    1.473755
      lrtwex |   .6630496   .4713038     1.41   0.162    -.2706882    1.596787
     befile6 |   .1397024   .2668075     0.52   0.602    -.3888914    .6682962
     affile6 |   .0126317   .2786866     0.05   0.964    -.5394967    .5647601
      afdec6 |  -.5213006     .30195    -1.73   0.087    -1.119518    .0769168
         feb |  -.4177089   .3044445    -1.37   0.173    -1.020868    .1854505
         mar |   .0590528   .2647308     0.22   0.824    -.4654266    .5835322
         apr |  -.4514825   .2683865    -1.68   0.095    -.9832046    .0802396
         may |   .0333085   .2692425     0.12   0.902    -.5001093    .5667264
         jun |  -.2063321   .2692515    -0.77   0.445    -.7397679    .3271038
         jul |   .0038354   .2787665     0.01   0.989    -.5484513    .5561222
         aug |  -.1570652   .2779928    -0.56   0.573    -.7078191    .3936887
         sep |  -.1341606   .2676556    -0.50   0.617    -.6644348    .3961135
         oct |   .0516921   .2668512     0.19   0.847    -.4769883    .5803725
         nov |    -.24626   .2628272    -0.94   0.351     -.766968     .274448
         dec |   .1328368   .2714234     0.49   0.626    -.4049019    .6705755
       _cons |   16.77877   32.42865     0.52   0.606    -47.46824    81.02577
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. test feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

 ( 1)  feb = 0
 ( 2)  mar = 0
 ( 3)  apr = 0
 ( 4)  may = 0
 ( 5)  jun = 0
 ( 6)  jul = 0
 ( 7)  aug = 0
 ( 8)  sep = 0
 ( 9)  oct = 0
 (10)  nov = 0
 (11)  dec = 0
       F( 11,   113) =    0.86
            Prob > F =    0.5852
. reg lchnimp lchempi lgas lrtwex befile6 affile6 afdec6 spr sum fall
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =       131
-------------+----------------------------------   F(9, 121)       =      6.03
       Model |  19.7126415         9  2.19029349   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  43.9396068       121  .363137247   R-squared       =    0.3097
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.2583
       Total |  63.6522483       130  .489632679   Root MSE        =    .60261

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     lchnimp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     lchempi |   3.077933   .4861354     6.33   0.000       2.1155    4.040367
        lgas |   .5650851   1.000208     0.56   0.573     -1.41509     2.54526
      lrtwex |   1.101474   .4246085     2.59   0.011     .2608498    1.942099
     befile6 |   .0766913   .2650022     0.29   0.773    -.4479504    .6013329
     affile6 |  -.0832898   .2728272    -0.31   0.761    -.6234233    .4568437
      afdec6 |  -.6211993   .2954242    -2.10   0.038    -1.206069   -.0363292
         spr |  -.0412246   .1511745    -0.27   0.786    -.3405145    .2580652
         sum |  -.1519034    .169261    -0.90   0.371    -.4870002    .1831935
        fall |  -.0672783   .1544774    -0.44   0.664     -.373107    .2385504
       _cons |  -26.52188   23.29748    -1.14   0.257    -72.64538    19.60162
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. test spr sum fall
 ( 1)  spr = 0
 ( 2)  sum = 0
 ( 3)  fall = 0
       F(  3,   121) =    0.28
            Prob > F =    0.8381

. log close
      name:  SN
       log:  ~Wooldridge\intro-econx\iexample10.smcl
  log type:  smcl
 closed on:  14 Jan 2019, 15:34:50
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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    Source: IPIS Briefing March 2021 Ethiopian police arrest 359 for suspected murder and illicit arms trade | 29 March 2021 | Xinhua The Ethiopian Federal Police Commission disclosed the arrest of 359 people on suspicion of murder, illicit arms trade, money laundering and auto theft, the state-affiliated Fana Broadcasting Corporate reported Sunday. Scale of Tigray horror […]
    Solomon
  • FP – The U.N. Must End the Horrors of Ethiopia’s Tigray War 2021-03-08
    Foreign Policy | Recent human rights investigations confirm the atrocities that journalists reported in November. A strong multilateral push can force an Eritrean withdrawal and put the region on the path to peace. In November 2020, as war broke out in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, the scale of the suffering was already apparent to anyone […]
    Solomon
  • Ethiopia: Eritrean Forces Massacre Tigray Civilians – HRW 2021-03-07
    HRW | UN Should Urgently Investigate Atrocities by All Parties (Nairobi) – Eritrean armed forces massacred scores of civilians, including children as young as 13, in the historic town of Axum in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in November 2020, Human Rights Watch said today. The United Nations should urgently establish an independent inquiry into war crimes […]
    Solomon